Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, November 14th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks post noticeable gains. The Dow is currently up 103 points while the Nasdaq has gained 28 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (3.15%), but slight gains late yesterday should prevent much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

5/32


Bonds


30 yr - 3.15%

103


Dow


25,390

28


NASDAQ


7,229

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High


Neutral


Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This morning’s important economic data was October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the overall reading rose 0.3% and that the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2%. Both readings matched forecasts. The increases mean inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were stronger than in September but did not come as a surprise. Rising inflation is an issue for the bond market because it makes long-term securities less appealing to investors and causes the Fed to be more aggressive with rate hikes.

Medium


Unknown


Fed Talk

Fed Chairman Powell has a public speaking engagement this evening and again late tomorrow morning. Tonight’s event is more likely to yield something that will affect the markets and possibly mortgage rates. Since it will be after the markets close, if there is a reaction to his words it will be reflected in tomorrow morning’s mortgage rates.

High


Unknown


Retail Sales

The Commerce Department will give us October's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This data measures consumer level or retail spending. It is considered extremely important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in retail-level spending, meaning consumers spent more last month than they did in September. A larger increase in spending would be considered negative news for bonds because rising spending fuels economic growth and raises inflation concerns in the bond market. If tomorrow’s report reveals that consumers spent less than thought, bonds should react favorably, pushing mortgage rates lower. If it shows a larger rise, mortgage rates could move higher.

Low


Unknown


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow’s weekly unemployment update is expected to show that 214,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That would be unchanged from the previous week’s total. The larger the number of new claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, this is only a weekly report and comes at the same time as a highly important monthly report. Therefore, it is likely not to have much of an influence on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.